Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.266858 11.462236 12.799236 14.417087 16.337504 18.564285 21.371319
2025-04-13 8.414220 9.865870 11.609434 13.893792 16.863371 20.675317 26.082107
2025-04-20 8.085010 9.855933 12.109310 15.266357 19.713434 25.989080 35.997046
2025-04-27 7.529429 9.438588 11.972263 15.705965 21.306331 29.847122 44.928446
2025-05-04 6.795452 8.681436 11.257694 15.191353 21.365833 31.345906 50.440088
2025-05-11 6.459331 8.419933 11.182462 15.567855 22.811866 35.338499 61.762735
2025-05-18 6.026176 7.974122 10.783577 15.378407 23.278531 37.707694 70.778150
2025-05-25 5.659143 7.588508 10.429567 15.203070 23.719405 40.102332 80.867811
2025-06-01 5.367752 7.288446 10.173082 15.147332 24.349734 43.003374 93.621421
2025-06-08 5.039109 6.907185 9.755142 14.765208 24.300595 44.456636 103.257968
2025-06-15 4.822291 6.680593 9.562031 14.748075 24.949097 47.614416 119.950814
2025-06-22 4.511856 6.289294 9.072762 14.150466 24.337302 47.670999 126.510503
2025-06-29 4.200622 5.890585 8.562626 13.501738 23.605447 47.466845 132.987083
2025-07-06 3.945478 5.567845 8.159253 13.017167 23.165688 47.949175 142.909379
2025-07-13 4.016422 5.768622 8.648536 14.267878 26.746383 60.451256 220.772638
2025-07-20 3.937705 5.718582 8.699191 14.667408 28.468287 68.439924 292.772167
2025-07-27 3.732989 5.447645 8.340400 14.199644 27.998214 69.275633 320.646492
2025-08-03 3.662418 5.397423 8.372374 14.541930 29.634463 78.010685 433.187578
2025-08-10 3.524898 5.225865 8.171483 14.369738 29.898186 81.939381 517.488117
2025-08-17 3.398812 5.067623 7.985000 14.210301 30.172417 86.092791 624.293292
2025-08-24 3.295310 4.943339 7.853868 14.159603 30.745441 91.826436 788.837758
2025-08-31 3.161259 4.759767 7.600333 13.811839 30.408943 93.485692 901.335763
2025-09-07 3.075947 4.658092 7.496949 13.796240 31.055519 100.098148 1184.105804